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The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World(英文版)

為了解決Typhoon forecast的問題，作者Yi-BenTsai 這樣論述：

　　本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區，未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度回歸公式，計算全球及主要地震帶，不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。 這本書是作者五十多年來，為了減輕地震災害，致力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育，所積累的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法，有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。   　　The primary purpose of this book is to present quantitative forecasting of the mid-term probability of large earthqua

kes both globally and over various regions of the world.  The author used the novel seismic activity regression formula to calculate the probability of an earthquake, in the global and major seismic zones, with any given magnitude at any given time since the most recent earthquake of the same magnit

ude. This book is the author's 50+ years accumulation of achievements in researching and teaching geophysics and seismology for mitigation of earthquake disasters. The author hopes that those after him will find the methodology in this book to be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused

by earthquakes of catastrophic magnitude.     好評推薦 　　“This is an excellent summary of the life-long contributions of the author Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai, who has essentially led the initiation in 1960s and its subsequent development during the ensuing half Century, of the Taiwan Earthquake Research Program

, which has led to one of the best and most productive seismological research enterprises in the world. Based on his Taiwan work, in this book Dr. Tsai further gives a comprehensive outline on the status of the earthquake science and hazards in the world that should be most valuable for professional

s as well as the interested public.”– Ta-Liang Teng, Professor of Geophysics and Seismology, University of Southern California, USA 　　“Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai had an extensive career as a research seismologist, an educator, academic/research administrator and in industry all in earthquake country. This boo

k is the result of his labor of love – he recruited his whole family in the last stage of his writing to complete the manuscript. In this book, he based his seismicity forecast on a modified way to estimate Gutenberg-Richter relation with measure of uncertainty on the annual rate and applied the cal

culation to all major seismic regions of the world. It is a useful reference for readers concerned with the seismicity of the earth.”– Francis T. Wu, Professor of Geophysics, State University of New York at Binghamton, USA 　　“This is a wonderful book for those who are interested in earthquakes and

the global tectonics. In addition to the global seismicity, general seismotectonics are introduced in many regions where the next big earthquakes are expected.”– Sun-Lin Chung, Distinguished Research Fellow and Director, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan 　　“The excellent book int

egrates global seismicity data, plate tectonics and quantitative forecasting of the probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world. It is a must-read for students, academics, and professionals in seismic geosciences.”– Ching-Hua Lo, NTU Chair Professor of Geosci

ences and Executive Vice President, National Taiwan   　　“Prof. Tsai is a pioneer for Earth Sciences studies in Taiwan. His vision in earthquake science and engineering brought significant impact to the society of Taiwan for earthquake hazard mitigation. This book compiled the global seismicity to br

ing in the attention of high seismic hazard region, and provide fundamental message for earthquake science and engineering.”– Kuo-Fong Ma, Professor and Chair of Earthquake - Disaster & Risk Management (E-DREaM) Center, National Central University, Taiwan 　　“A great book for an excellent introd

uction of seismology as well as earthquake engineering. It provides a lot of practical experiences to face the next big earthquakes.”– Yih-Min Wu, Professor of Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan 　　“Professor Yi-Ben Tsai wrote this book based on his outstanding research pr

esenting a complete analysis of global earthquake statistics. Professor Tsai devoted his life to earthquake observation and study. As a leader in the development of earth science and technology in Taiwan, he is a role model for global earth science researchers. This book is definitely worth recommen

ding to students and teachers in universities and research institutes and also serves to commemorate professor Yi-Ben Tsai, the father of Taiwan seismology.”– Wen-Yen Chang, Distinguished Professor and Dean, College of Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan 　　“This is a great c

ontribution to earthquake studies, with an innovative theory based on fundamental seismological knowledge. As Professor Tsai stated, hopefully the methodology in this book can be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes. The data can be significant for policy makers or any

one making important decisions on earthquake preparedness.”– Yi-Heng Li, Senior Researcher of Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratory, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan   　　“This book is an excellent reference book for the patterns of global seismicity and the evaluation for

the probabilities of large earthquakes in the world. Dr. Tsai devoted himself to the study of the seismic hazard and this book shows the passion of his work. For the scientific perspective and also in memory of Dr. Tsai, this book is worth having.”– Hao Kuo-Chen, Associate Professor of Department of

Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan 　　“An excellent manifest of the lifelong work and focus of a devoted seismologist on a pressing topic facing our society today and in the future. The theoretic derivation and explanation are clear; the data compilation and analysis are painstakin

gly comprehensive and detailed.”– Chin-Wu Chen, Assistant Professor of Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

Typhoon forecast進入發燒排行的影片

結合類神經網路及主成分分析於颱風時期大氣參數對降雨量推估之研究

為了解決Typhoon forecast的問題，作者林子傑 這樣論述：

台灣坐落在西北太平洋上，為熱帶氣旋與颱風侵襲的主要路徑，平均每年有四到五個颱風侵襲台；同時台灣山高地狹、地形陡峭、川短流急，使得颱風所帶來的豐沛雨量引發水庫排洪不及的危機，而準確的降雨預報可提高流量推估之準確性，有助於水庫的防洪操作策略之參考，可提前預放與調節水庫水位，預留足夠的防洪空間，此為值得探討且重要的議題。本研究以石門水庫集水區最為研究區域，透過蒐集颱風時期集水區測站之歷史資料與ERA5大氣參數之網格資料，建置倒傳遞神經網路模式(BPNN)以預測未來1~3小時之集水區降雨量，並依照不同輸入項與降雨量之移動平均之結合可分三種模式，模式一(篩選大氣參數)、模式二(篩選參數之前十個主成分)

與模式三(篩選參數之前五個主成分)，以分析輸入因子對BPNN模式預測結果之影響，並討論大氣參數與降雨量之關係。根據結果顯示，以篩選參數作為輸入項之BPNN模式大致上能掌握降雨趨勢，說明本研究所篩選之大氣參數若颱風時期能取得即時觀測資料，能作為推估未來時雨量之參考依據；模式二與模式三之結果表現均優於模式一，可證明經由主成分分析保留重要特徵的降維方式，能提高模式之預測準確度及運算效率。

Temporal Climatology and Anomalous Weather Analysis

為了解決Typhoon forecast的問題，作者Qian, Weihong 這樣論述：

Weihong Qian is currently a Professor at Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University. He has lectured two courses, ＂Synoptic Meteorology＂ for undergraduate and ＂Global Climate System＂ for postgraduate, since 2000. He has published three teaching materials inc

luding ＂Synoptic Meteorology＂ in 2004, ＂Global Climate System＂ in 2008, and ＂Principles of Medium to Extended Range Weather Forecasts＂ in 2012. His research activities are mainly devoted to identifying natural change with multiple tempo-spatial scales, forecasting weather extremes and climatic anoma

lies. In 2011, he has successfully applied two patents for the applications of the anomaly-based approach on synoptic charts and medium-ranged forecast. Using current reanalysis products and climate model simulations, he has discovered the Arctic cell and the Antarctic cell in 2015 beside well-known

the Hadley, Ferrell and Polar cells. He proposed the anomaly-based synoptic chart which has advantages over the traditional synoptic chart to locate surface weather extremes. He and his students developed an anomaly-based dynamical model which can predict all unusual tropical cyclone tracks in shor

t-term period. By using the decomposition method, he and his students published 10 research papers in international journals in 2016. His method is applicable to all weather extremes. He also published ＂Atlas of Climate Change and China Extreme Climate Events＂ in 2011, ＂Atlas of Anomalous Circulatio

ns Associated with Regional Heavy Rainfall in China＂ in 2013, and ＂Typhoon Turning Atlas＂ in 2014. He is also interested in the popularization of science, and wrote a book ＂Who is driving climate change?＂ in 2011.

瑪莉亞颱風（2018）快速增強及結構演變之數值模擬研究

為了解決Typhoon forecast的問題，作者林庭州 這樣論述：

瑪莉亞颱風(Maria)於 2018 年 7 月 3 日於關島東南方海面生成，從 5 日至 6 日，其強度迅速增強進入快速增強(Rapid Intensification; RI)過程，並於 RI 結束後不到 24 小時便進行了一次眼牆置換。本研究利用 WRF 模式搭配歐洲中期天氣預報中心 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast;ECMWF)之 ERA5 全球模式資料為初始場，同時利用颱風動力初始化方式，分析瑪莉亞颱風 RI 過程以及結構變化。 模擬結果顯示， RI 的發展主要受到內外兩對流區強度的影響。在 RI 開始前，內核區

高層的對流活動，以及較低的環境垂直風切,使得潛熱能夠有效釋放，形成高層暖心結構，進而使颱風中心最低氣壓下降，高層暖心與中心最低氣壓之間的正回饋，有效提高颱風的強度,使颱風進入 RI階段。在 RI 後期，即便颱風對流強度沒有顯著的減弱，但是由於強對流活動主要集中在外圍，能量無法有效傳遞至內核區，導致內核區對流減弱，使得高層暖心結構無法維持，颱風強度停止增強。 為瞭解海表溫度以及海表通量傳輸對於 RI 的影響，本研究進行改變海溫以及改變海表通量計算方式之敏感度實驗。結果顯示，當海溫降低2°C 以上時，不會發展 RI 。當海溫降低1°C 時，依舊會發展 RI ，但是受限於海表熱通量不足及垂直結構傾

斜等影響，高層暖心結構以及 RI 持續時間較短。當海溫增加1°C 時，颱風強度不論是在 RI 前、中、後都有更為顯著的增強，高層暖心結構更能夠維持，且垂直結構較不為傾斜。而改變海表通量計算方式，使得海表面阻力減小以及海表向上傳輸的熱通量增加，對於 RI 後期的增強更為顯著，且高層暖心結構更為明顯。